New York State manufacturing is a good indicator of growth in the US economy. Between
growth in manufacturing and retail sales, overall the economy seems to be on the rise. The 0.5
percent increase in consumer sales for October also points to the economic recovery. Holiday
sales may be better than previously expected.
Electronics Sales increases of 3.7 percent played a major role in the consumer gain. That was the
highest increase since November of 2009. Internet and mail order sales increased by 1.5 percent.
The high demand for the latest Apple iPhones played a large role in that increase. On October 14
the iPhone 4S went on sale and sold 4 million phones within the first three days it was available.
Altogether, the strong start of the fourth quarter indicates that there will not be another recession.
The 0.5 percent gain in October following the 1.1 percent increase in September is a strong
indication. Consumer spending is approximately 70 percent of the economy and gains in that
spending point to the US economy being on the rise. This is in spite of the debt crisis in Europe
affecting stock indices. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index saw a 0.5 percent drop to 1.145.59 at 11:34
New York time.
A reduction in gasoline prices eased the burden on consumer’s paychecks after wholesale prices
dropped. There was a 1.4 percent decline during October affecting heating oil and natural gas
as well as fuel for vehicles. It looks like the Fed will not have to ease policy again since the
economy in the US seems ready for growth. Economists agree that, taken as a whole, these
factors are a good indication the economy will continue its uphill climb.
The fifth largest US bank, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., is anticipating a worldwide economic
rebound. The political fight in the US over national debt is behind us, as is the latest earthquake
in Japan. However, the crisis in Europe will have its detrimental effect.
Other increases were 0.6 percent rise in retail sales in October. Automotive sales saw a 0.4
percent rise, which added up to 13.2 million vehicles. The unemployment rate is still at 9 percent
where it has been for the last two years. But, with consumers and factories showing economic
improvement, the fourth quarter may see an annual rate over the 2.5 percent shown for the
previous three months.
Food is the one commodity cost that is outpacing the consumer’s capacity to absorb. The cost of
food and beverages is increasing rapidly. However, the overall economic situation appears to be
on the rise, more so than financial experts predicted a short time ago. The beginning of the fourth
quarter shows great promise for the US economy.